This is why the prices of fuel came down marginally and not significantly as you expected.
The NPA used a forex estimate rate of 14.01 to $1 for the second pricing window. In 2023, the first pricing window being the 1st of January, the NPA is using a forex estimation rate of 10.07 to $1.
Crude oil on the world market is also estimated to be reduced. So in the next pricing window, January 1st, prices of fuel will go down significantly. Petrol may be sold at 10 cedis per litre.
I’m predicting this because in Ghana, the price of fuel is determined by a formula that takes into consideration the following four and sometimes five factors:
1. The world market price of crude.
2. The freight cost from source to Ghana, storage costs and all other associated costs incurred before supply to retail outlets. This is mostly referred to as the Suppliers’ Premium or margin.
3. The exchange rate; the dollar to cedi rate
4. The taxes/levies by government
5. The OMC margins (OMC “individual fuel stations” profits). With the price of freight coming down because of the appreciation of the cedi and the reduction of crude oil prices on the world market, you can expect some significant reduction in petroleum products by January 1.